We’re Pouring Water Into a Leaky Bucket: New Research Confirms What ICA Has Known for Years
As studies show, one in five immigrants leave Canada, with skilled workers departing at twice the rate. Inter-Cultural Association of Victoria (ICA) CEO says timing of settlement funding changes creates concerning disconnect.
Since 1971, the Inter-Cultural Association of Greater Victoria has tracked what determines whether newcomers stay in Canada or leave. Now, new research is catching up to what settlement professionals have been saying all along: without
strong support in the first five years, we lose the exact people Canada needs most.
“We’ve been sounding this alarm for decades,” said Shelly D’Mello, CEO of ICA, who has over 25 years of experience in the settlement sector. “The Institute for Canadian Citizenship’s latest data confirms what we see every single day in our programs: one in five immigrants leave Canada, with highly educated professionals leaving at twice the rate. And yet, just as this evidence becomes clearer, settlement services across the country, including right here in Victoria, are facing funding reductions. The timing creates a significant challenge for the sector.”
The data is telling. Statistics Canada reports 27,086 people left Canada in just the first quarter of 2025. The Institute for Canadian Citizenship’s November 2025 “Leaky Bucket” report reveals individuals with doctoral degrees are more than twice as likely to leave compared to those with bachelor’s degrees—and this likelihood triples when immigrants face job prospects without income growth. Meanwhile, ICA and settlement organizations across Canada experienced significant federal funding reductions this spring, even as the need has never been greater.
54 Years of Knowing What Works
D’Mello doesn’t need research papers to tell her why immigrants leave, she’s seen it play out thousands of times. Last year alone, ICA provided 22,000 services to nearly 4,000 people from 110+ countries, serving the full spectrum of newcomers: refugees fleeing persecution, skilled professionals, families reuniting, temporary workers building lives.
“When someone arrives in Victoria with a PhD in engineering or nursing credentials, they don’t just need language classes, they need employment services that navigate credential recognition, professional networks, mental health support for the trauma of displacement, and community connections that create belonging,”
“Without this wraparound support, we watch them struggle for two, three, four years, and then they leave for different big cities, or back home. That’s not theory. That’s what we see. And that applies to all newcomers.”
ICA’s own data proves the impact of proper settlement support: 77% of employment program clients found work in their field. 80% of clients reported ICA positively impacted their settlement journey. These aren’t just feel-good statistics, they represent families who stayed, contributed, and built lives here because they received the support research now confirms is essential.
The Economic Reality: What Victoria Loses When Immigrants Leave
The economic case is clear, and it should concern every Victorian. Bank of Canada analysis finds that immigrants have added roughly 2.5 percentage points to Canada’s potential output in just two years. In healthcare, where Greater Victoria faces critical shortages, immigrants are essential: nearly half a million healthcare workers over 55 will retire in the next decade, and immigrants are filling these gaps.
“Victoria needs physicians, nurses, construction workers, educators and tech talent. We have immigrants arriving with exactly these skills. The question isn’t whether we need them, it’s whether we’ll invest in helping them use those skills here, or risk watching them leave.”
The math is stark: when skilled immigrants leave, Victoria loses their tax contributions, their workforce participation, their entrepreneurship, and their community involvement. We’re not just losing individuals—we’re losing economic engines.
ICA’s Strategic Response to Sector-Wide Challenges
This spring, ICA experienced a $1.2 million federal funding reduction, part of broader policy shifts affecting settlement organizations across Canada as immigration targets were adjusted. The challenge is clear: the people already here still need support.
“Immigration targets are down, yes. But the thousands of families who arrived in 2023, 2024, early 2025 are still here. They’re still navigating a new language, a tough housing market, credential recognition barriers, and cultural adjustment. This creates a gap between the support newcomers need and the resources available to provide it, at precisely the moment research shows how critical these first years are for retention.”
ICA hasn’t responded reactively. The organization has restructured strategically: combining frontline expertise with strategic capacity, focusing resources on programs with proven impact, and accelerating a five-year vision co-designed with community input.
“We’ve made painful decisions. We’ve said goodbye to valued staff members with deep expertise. We know more funding reductions are coming in the coming months as federal policy continues to shift. But we’ve been thoughtful, protecting our core capacity to deliver the services research confirms are essential for integration and long-term success.”
Greater Victoria Can Choose Differently
Greater Victoria has long been a place which genuinely welcomes newcomers. The community celebrates diversity, prides itself on inclusion, and values the richness that immigration brings. Now, D’Mello is challenging Victoria to put resources behind those values.
“This is a moment when Victoria’s character will show. We can watch settlement services shrink and lose the newcomers we’ve welcomed. Or we can invest in the infrastructure that makes welcome meaningful, that turns newcomers into neighbors, colleagues, and community members who stay and contribute.”
ICA has set an urgent goal to raise $250,000 by December 3, 2025 to stabilize programs through the first quarter of 2026 while developing longer-term community partnerships and diversified revenue strategies. But D’Mello frames this as more than fundraising, it’s a values question for a community that has always been welcoming.
“Settlement services aren’t charity, they are economic infrastructure. They’re what determine whether immigrants stay or leave. And right now, the research is screaming what we’ve known for years: proper support in the first five years is make-or-break,” she said. “Victoria can be part of the solution. We’re asking our community to step and show it.”
The Stories That Prove It Works
Mona Zeid’s story illustrates the multiplier effect of settlement investment. She arrived in Victoria in 2017 with her two children, facing language barriers and unrecognized credentials. Through ICA’s programs, she rebuilt her career and today leads ICA’s Settlement Services team, helping hundreds of other families navigate the same journey.
“For two years ICA invested and believed in me,” Mona said. “That support didn’t just change my life, it shaped the future of my entire family.”
Maya Hajj Taha, who arrived from Syria in 2017, found direction through ICA’s youth programs. Now studying nursing at UVic, filling one of Victoria’s critical workforce gaps. She describes ICA as “the bridge between newcomers and Canada.”
These aren’t exceptional cases, they’re what becomes possible when settlement support is in place during those critical first years. Without it, both Mona and Maya might have been statistics in the “Leaky Bucket” report: educated, skilled women who left Canada because the support wasn’t there.
The Path Forward: ICA’s Vision Despite Challenges
“If we want immigration to succeed, and we need it to succeed for our economy and our communities, then we need to invest in the infrastructure that makes it work,” D’Mello said. “Settlement services are that infrastructure.”
Despite funding pressures, ICA remains committed to its strategic plan: strengthening internal capacity, expanding opportunities for newcomers, and leading community change. The organization continues to serve clients in 55+ languages, providing comprehensive support that creates not just survival, but true belonging.
“We’re the experts,” D’Mello emphasized. “We’ve weathered challenges before, but never at this scale. What gives us hope is this community. Victoria doesn’t have to wait for national policy shifts. Victoria has always chosen to be genuinely welcoming. We’re asking you to continue choosing that, not just in words, but in investment.”